Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Smells of Spring
The Superbowl has come and passed, and the city of Chicago was once again reminded that “winning” is not one its strongest points. I made the trip up to Chicago, and while I enjoyed the season, well, I’m not going to comment anymore on the football season. The real news is that spring training opens tomorrow, and my favorite season of the year, baseball season, is officially under way.
The general theme of the offseason was “cha-ching”, led, of course, by my Chicago Cubs. Cubs GM Jim Hendry, who even closed deals from a hospital bed, received harsh criticism from his colleagues for jacking up the prices of free-agents—spending early and often. Within a month of the conclusion of the World Series he committed over $220 million dollars to five free agents. But can you blame him? The Cubs, who had drained the prospect cupboard empty, had failed miserably since their infamous trip to the 2003 postseason, and Hendry, in the last year of his contract, made a decision to go out with a bang. Were their decisions smart? Ask me when Alfonso Soriano, at 38, is getting paid $18M. Actually, don’t. The Cubs will be competitive this year, in a weak National League and more specifically NL Central division. With Derek Lee coming back healthy (the Cubs’ fans least favorite 3 word phrase), the Cubs have essentially added two of the best hitters in the National League. Jacque Jones, a Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton platoon, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and newly acquired Mark DeRosa promise that the Cubs can jack up 10 runs on any given day where the wind is blowing out at Wrigely. How much will they give up is another story. But at least Cubs fans won’t have to watch a team that can’t hit OR pitch.
Other offseason declarations:
Best Signing: Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers
- The Dodgers, for this offseason, got him at a bargain—only three years at $15M. He is a legitimate ace, and despite some shoulder concerns, has been pretty durable over the last 5 years.
Others:
- Soriano, Cubs: Again, this deal won’t look so good down the road, but you absolutely cannot ignore adding the best free agents and one of the best players in the league. Soriano is in his prime, durable, powerful, fast and will play in a little league park compared to where he was last year. Big numbers for the next few years.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: Dice-K, whose name I had to copy and paste from ESPN.com, is going to be hard to hit for at least a few months, make the Sox rotation pretty formidable. Then add the marketing factor, and the fact that he isn’t with the Yankees.
Worst Signing: Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers
- Get off your high horse Dodger fans. Giving Pierre 5 years at $9M is atrocious. He can’t hit for any power whatsoever, and imagine what his worth will be in five years when he can’t run as well (his stolen base: caught stealing ratio was among the worst already last year). I love his attitude and scrappiness, but I also liked Augie Ojeda’s-- not for that cash.
Best Deal: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds resigned Harang, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league to a 4 year extension last week, at an average of $9M. He won 16 games last year, struck out 216 in 234.3 IP with a 3.76 ERA, head and shoulders above, say Barry Zito, who received nearly twice as much. Locking him up was swell idea.
Other good deals:
- Tony Armas, Pittsburgh Pirates: In this day in age, starting pitching is expensive. Armas has never fulfilled his potential with Montreal/Washington, but when Jason Marquis is making 7 bills, why not give a guy who throws in the 90’s and plus curve 3.5M?
- Greg Maddux, SD Padres: Maddux was born to pitch in that park. A risk free signing (1 year at $10M), Maddux doubles as a pitching coach.
- Preston Wilson, STL Cardinals: Again, its all relative. When free agent A makes $18M to hit 48 HRS, I’ll take free agent B to 25 HRs at $1M. Wilson still has some productivity left.
Worst Deal: Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs paid $7M a year on a project pitcher, who they believe can regain his 2005 form under Larry Rothschild’s tutilege. A few problems: Rothschild is no, say, Dave Duncan, who couldn’t turn around Marquis—what makes him think he could do any better? Don’t like that argument. Fine. How about, YOU DON’T PAY 7 MILLION DOLLARS FOR A PROJECT PITCHER. At least he can hit.
Best Trade:
Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino, Diamondbacks and Brewers
- This trade works well. From the Diamondbacks perspective, they get a real good pitcher, in a market where pitching was overvalued. They felt comfortable handing the catching reins over to lefty Miguel Montero and adding Davis was essential in putting together I feel is the best rotation in the NL. The Brewers did get a ton in return: Estrada is a huge offensive upgrade over Damian Miller, and they got two closer candidates in Vargas and Aquino.
Worst Trade:
Brandon McCarthy for Josh Danks and Nick Masset, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers
- The Sox, in attempts to get younger in the rotation, gave up their best starting young pitcher (who was ready for the majors anyways). Josh Danks and Nick Masset are nice prospects—great prospects actually, but wasn’t McCarthy one too? The Sox set themselves back a few years, in forcing themselves to develop another young pitcher. The Rangers, who are better off with quantity with their current situation, got a pitcher who gives up a few too many homeruns in ballpark that doesn’t hide that.
Best offseason (Best situated to start the season award): LA Dodgers
- Brought in Pierre, Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Luis Gonzalez and brought back Nomar Garciaparra from a team that went to post-season last year. They have tons of young hitting, veteran starting pitching to go back. Spent a lot of money, but they have plenty of talent.
Others
- Arizona Diamondbacks: They beefed up their starting pitching, adding Davis and Randy Johnson to an already potent staff consisting of reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and former all-star Livan Hernandez along and Juan Cruz. Their offense is stacked with young offensive studs like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Conor Jackson. Dangerous team this year.
- Cubs: What’s the price of being competitive? Something like $300M
- Milwaukee Brewers: Along with the Davis trade, they got healthy (Rickie Weeks and J.J Hardy recovered from season ending injuries), more experienced (Weeks, Hardy and Fielder make one of the best, young infields in the league), signed impact players Craig Counsell and Jeff Suppan and locked up versatile Bill Hall. They are going to be competitive in the NL Central this year, and for the next 5 years.
- Kansas City Royals: Really? Are you sure? I like what they have done. It takes a while to build a winner, especially with no money. I’m not among the majority who felt that signing Gil Meche was a good “message sender”, but the deals for Ryan Shealey, Luke Hudson, Joey Gaithright and Brian Bannister are OK pieces when Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Luke Hovechar and Billy Butler finally hit their stride. I don’t know. Maybe not.
- Colorado Rockies: Sure they disgruntled their star, but he might be gone yet. Meanwhile, they signed Javy Lopez, Brian Lawrence, Josh Fogg and got a plethora of talent from the Astros for Jason Jennings, including OF Willy Taveras.
- The Yankees and Red Sox: They always do well, cause they shell out cash. Between them, they brought in Pettite, Dice-K, Kei Igawa, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Joel Pinerio.
Worst offseason: Texas Rangers
- They lost Gary Matthews Jr., Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa, Adam Eaton and Kip Wells and brought in Sammy Sosa (who will not make the opening day roster). They didn’t solve their pitching problems, because they were held hostage by the thought of losing mediocre starter Vincent Padilla, and signed him for more than $11M per year. Brought in aging CF Kenny Lofton and oft-injured closer Eric Gagne (who they guaranteed the closer job too). Can you say desperation?
Others:
- Chicago White Sox: They are still in a great position to compete, but Sox GM Kenny Williams’ stubborn stance on not over-paying for pitching (hey, no one wants to “overpay”) have seriously impeded the Sox chances of winning this year. Ditching Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy brought in some very good young talent, but its raw and unproven. Gio Gonzalez, Danks, Masset, Andy Cisco, Gavin Floyd and David Aardsma all pack heat—but they aren’t ready to win anything this year. They also failed to find insurance for Brian Anderson out in center, unless you count Daren Erstad, who is really insurance for Scott Posednik in left. Juan Uribe’s offseason activities may cause him to miss some of Spring Training. The Sox are going to have a winning record—but how will fans feel knowing they traded away 5 or 6 wins?
More predictions, thoughts to come. I love baseball season.
The general theme of the offseason was “cha-ching”, led, of course, by my Chicago Cubs. Cubs GM Jim Hendry, who even closed deals from a hospital bed, received harsh criticism from his colleagues for jacking up the prices of free-agents—spending early and often. Within a month of the conclusion of the World Series he committed over $220 million dollars to five free agents. But can you blame him? The Cubs, who had drained the prospect cupboard empty, had failed miserably since their infamous trip to the 2003 postseason, and Hendry, in the last year of his contract, made a decision to go out with a bang. Were their decisions smart? Ask me when Alfonso Soriano, at 38, is getting paid $18M. Actually, don’t. The Cubs will be competitive this year, in a weak National League and more specifically NL Central division. With Derek Lee coming back healthy (the Cubs’ fans least favorite 3 word phrase), the Cubs have essentially added two of the best hitters in the National League. Jacque Jones, a Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton platoon, Michael Barrett, Aramis Ramirez and newly acquired Mark DeRosa promise that the Cubs can jack up 10 runs on any given day where the wind is blowing out at Wrigely. How much will they give up is another story. But at least Cubs fans won’t have to watch a team that can’t hit OR pitch.
Other offseason declarations:
Best Signing: Jason Schmidt, LA Dodgers
- The Dodgers, for this offseason, got him at a bargain—only three years at $15M. He is a legitimate ace, and despite some shoulder concerns, has been pretty durable over the last 5 years.
Others:
- Soriano, Cubs: Again, this deal won’t look so good down the road, but you absolutely cannot ignore adding the best free agents and one of the best players in the league. Soriano is in his prime, durable, powerful, fast and will play in a little league park compared to where he was last year. Big numbers for the next few years.
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox: Dice-K, whose name I had to copy and paste from ESPN.com, is going to be hard to hit for at least a few months, make the Sox rotation pretty formidable. Then add the marketing factor, and the fact that he isn’t with the Yankees.
Worst Signing: Juan Pierre, LA Dodgers
- Get off your high horse Dodger fans. Giving Pierre 5 years at $9M is atrocious. He can’t hit for any power whatsoever, and imagine what his worth will be in five years when he can’t run as well (his stolen base: caught stealing ratio was among the worst already last year). I love his attitude and scrappiness, but I also liked Augie Ojeda’s-- not for that cash.
Best Deal: Aaron Harang, Cincinnati Reds
- The Reds resigned Harang, perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the league to a 4 year extension last week, at an average of $9M. He won 16 games last year, struck out 216 in 234.3 IP with a 3.76 ERA, head and shoulders above, say Barry Zito, who received nearly twice as much. Locking him up was swell idea.
Other good deals:
- Tony Armas, Pittsburgh Pirates: In this day in age, starting pitching is expensive. Armas has never fulfilled his potential with Montreal/Washington, but when Jason Marquis is making 7 bills, why not give a guy who throws in the 90’s and plus curve 3.5M?
- Greg Maddux, SD Padres: Maddux was born to pitch in that park. A risk free signing (1 year at $10M), Maddux doubles as a pitching coach.
- Preston Wilson, STL Cardinals: Again, its all relative. When free agent A makes $18M to hit 48 HRS, I’ll take free agent B to 25 HRs at $1M. Wilson still has some productivity left.
Worst Deal: Jason Marquis, Chicago Cubs
- The Cubs paid $7M a year on a project pitcher, who they believe can regain his 2005 form under Larry Rothschild’s tutilege. A few problems: Rothschild is no, say, Dave Duncan, who couldn’t turn around Marquis—what makes him think he could do any better? Don’t like that argument. Fine. How about, YOU DON’T PAY 7 MILLION DOLLARS FOR A PROJECT PITCHER. At least he can hit.
Best Trade:
Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada, Claudio Vargas and Greg Aquino, Diamondbacks and Brewers
- This trade works well. From the Diamondbacks perspective, they get a real good pitcher, in a market where pitching was overvalued. They felt comfortable handing the catching reins over to lefty Miguel Montero and adding Davis was essential in putting together I feel is the best rotation in the NL. The Brewers did get a ton in return: Estrada is a huge offensive upgrade over Damian Miller, and they got two closer candidates in Vargas and Aquino.
Worst Trade:
Brandon McCarthy for Josh Danks and Nick Masset, Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers
- The Sox, in attempts to get younger in the rotation, gave up their best starting young pitcher (who was ready for the majors anyways). Josh Danks and Nick Masset are nice prospects—great prospects actually, but wasn’t McCarthy one too? The Sox set themselves back a few years, in forcing themselves to develop another young pitcher. The Rangers, who are better off with quantity with their current situation, got a pitcher who gives up a few too many homeruns in ballpark that doesn’t hide that.
Best offseason (Best situated to start the season award): LA Dodgers
- Brought in Pierre, Schmidt, Randy Wolf and Luis Gonzalez and brought back Nomar Garciaparra from a team that went to post-season last year. They have tons of young hitting, veteran starting pitching to go back. Spent a lot of money, but they have plenty of talent.
Others
- Arizona Diamondbacks: They beefed up their starting pitching, adding Davis and Randy Johnson to an already potent staff consisting of reigning Cy Young winner Brandon Webb and former all-star Livan Hernandez along and Juan Cruz. Their offense is stacked with young offensive studs like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Conor Jackson. Dangerous team this year.
- Cubs: What’s the price of being competitive? Something like $300M
- Milwaukee Brewers: Along with the Davis trade, they got healthy (Rickie Weeks and J.J Hardy recovered from season ending injuries), more experienced (Weeks, Hardy and Fielder make one of the best, young infields in the league), signed impact players Craig Counsell and Jeff Suppan and locked up versatile Bill Hall. They are going to be competitive in the NL Central this year, and for the next 5 years.
- Kansas City Royals: Really? Are you sure? I like what they have done. It takes a while to build a winner, especially with no money. I’m not among the majority who felt that signing Gil Meche was a good “message sender”, but the deals for Ryan Shealey, Luke Hudson, Joey Gaithright and Brian Bannister are OK pieces when Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, Luke Hovechar and Billy Butler finally hit their stride. I don’t know. Maybe not.
- Colorado Rockies: Sure they disgruntled their star, but he might be gone yet. Meanwhile, they signed Javy Lopez, Brian Lawrence, Josh Fogg and got a plethora of talent from the Astros for Jason Jennings, including OF Willy Taveras.
- The Yankees and Red Sox: They always do well, cause they shell out cash. Between them, they brought in Pettite, Dice-K, Kei Igawa, J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Joel Pinerio.
Worst offseason: Texas Rangers
- They lost Gary Matthews Jr., Carlos Lee, Mark DeRosa, Adam Eaton and Kip Wells and brought in Sammy Sosa (who will not make the opening day roster). They didn’t solve their pitching problems, because they were held hostage by the thought of losing mediocre starter Vincent Padilla, and signed him for more than $11M per year. Brought in aging CF Kenny Lofton and oft-injured closer Eric Gagne (who they guaranteed the closer job too). Can you say desperation?
Others:
- Chicago White Sox: They are still in a great position to compete, but Sox GM Kenny Williams’ stubborn stance on not over-paying for pitching (hey, no one wants to “overpay”) have seriously impeded the Sox chances of winning this year. Ditching Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy brought in some very good young talent, but its raw and unproven. Gio Gonzalez, Danks, Masset, Andy Cisco, Gavin Floyd and David Aardsma all pack heat—but they aren’t ready to win anything this year. They also failed to find insurance for Brian Anderson out in center, unless you count Daren Erstad, who is really insurance for Scott Posednik in left. Juan Uribe’s offseason activities may cause him to miss some of Spring Training. The Sox are going to have a winning record—but how will fans feel knowing they traded away 5 or 6 wins?
More predictions, thoughts to come. I love baseball season.
