Monday, September 04, 2006
September Shakedown
Hey sports fans. Some are wondering why I left Green Bay out of my NFC preview last week—is it the Chicago bias? Are they that terrible that I consider them not to be a factor? Has law school sucked the life out of me? Who cares, it was just the Packers, and I refuse to apologize to Packer fans. But it won’t happen again.
Lots on the plate this week (including another disappointing Team USA let down, the return of College Football!!!, Andre Agassi’s incredible run at the Open, and an agonizing return of Jason Whitlock to PTI)—I hope to get a chance to write a bit about all of that this week. But I’ll stick with what I do best.
September is a great month for baseball fans. And if you cheer for a National League team not from Chicago or Pittsburgh, you got a shot to see your team play a little October ball. The obvious reality is that the National League is an embarrassment right now—whether it’s a combination of the AL dominance in interleague play, the inability of an NL West team to play over .500 for an extended period time, or the broken down pitching of the entire league—its hard to justify why the NL gets to be represented in the World Series at all this year.
Its hard to make sense of the Mesopotamia that is the National League playoff picture, but lets assume that the Cardinals and Mets finish up the season good enough to take the division (5 games under for the Cardinals, which is essentially their current pace, and 15 games below for the Mets would suffice). That puts two the two pennant favorites in; but both teams have serious issues, among them injuries to front line starters. The Dodgers’ 3 game lead in the West is about the biggest any team has had all year. They are a good bet for a division crown.
The Wild Card race includes such perennial winners as the San Diego Padres, up by a miniscule lead over the Phillies, Reds, and Astros, the latter teams with records below .500. The Giants, Marlins, Braves, Rockies and Diamondbacks, Brewers are all chasing a dream, all within 6.5 games.
The criteria for a playoff race winner, as I have always seen it, is some combination of pitching (the freshness of the staff has to be kept in mind), schedule and the manager. The Padres, play a lot of division rivals in September—they happen to be 2 games under .500 against their own division. However, they have just acquired David Wells, and Chris Young has been rock solid all year. Peavy, despite struggling, is well below the 200 IP he threw last year, so its not inconceivable that he steps it up big (See Saturday Night’s performance). And there aren’t many more experienced managers than Bruce Bochey.
Jerry Narron’s inexperienced Reds figure to waver down the stretch without an ace, and forget about the Phillies, who stupidly gave up on the Wild Card in July; Jerry Manuel has been on the hot seat there longer than George W. Bush with the hippies. He’s got a lot of rookies who are throwing too many innings.
The Rockies are interesting choice—pretty far out today, but by the end of September could find themselves back in it after series with the Cubs and Pirates. Clint Hurdle has been masterful this year, and Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis have been outstanding most of this season.
In the AL, it’s a three man race with the Tigers, Sox and Twins fighting for two spots. Expect the Tigers to hang on to their 4 game title lead, despite their reliance on young pitching. Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander keep putting together enough pitching to seemingly get Jim Leyland by for another month or two. The Sox and Twins will go down to the wire, but if Fransico Liriano comes back in Fransico Liriano form, there will be no stopping those Minnesotans. When the Twins got themselves back in the race back in June, the Santana-Liriano combo was as (if not more) powerful as the Prior-Wood, Schilling-Johnson, Clemens-Pettite tandems that was so successful deep into the playoffs over the last few years.
I expect to see a California team play a Midwest team in November.
September is sports fans dream. A lot on the plate, choose wisely. Have a good week.
Lots on the plate this week (including another disappointing Team USA let down, the return of College Football!!!, Andre Agassi’s incredible run at the Open, and an agonizing return of Jason Whitlock to PTI)—I hope to get a chance to write a bit about all of that this week. But I’ll stick with what I do best.
September is a great month for baseball fans. And if you cheer for a National League team not from Chicago or Pittsburgh, you got a shot to see your team play a little October ball. The obvious reality is that the National League is an embarrassment right now—whether it’s a combination of the AL dominance in interleague play, the inability of an NL West team to play over .500 for an extended period time, or the broken down pitching of the entire league—its hard to justify why the NL gets to be represented in the World Series at all this year.
Its hard to make sense of the Mesopotamia that is the National League playoff picture, but lets assume that the Cardinals and Mets finish up the season good enough to take the division (5 games under for the Cardinals, which is essentially their current pace, and 15 games below for the Mets would suffice). That puts two the two pennant favorites in; but both teams have serious issues, among them injuries to front line starters. The Dodgers’ 3 game lead in the West is about the biggest any team has had all year. They are a good bet for a division crown.
The Wild Card race includes such perennial winners as the San Diego Padres, up by a miniscule lead over the Phillies, Reds, and Astros, the latter teams with records below .500. The Giants, Marlins, Braves, Rockies and Diamondbacks, Brewers are all chasing a dream, all within 6.5 games.
The criteria for a playoff race winner, as I have always seen it, is some combination of pitching (the freshness of the staff has to be kept in mind), schedule and the manager. The Padres, play a lot of division rivals in September—they happen to be 2 games under .500 against their own division. However, they have just acquired David Wells, and Chris Young has been rock solid all year. Peavy, despite struggling, is well below the 200 IP he threw last year, so its not inconceivable that he steps it up big (See Saturday Night’s performance). And there aren’t many more experienced managers than Bruce Bochey.
Jerry Narron’s inexperienced Reds figure to waver down the stretch without an ace, and forget about the Phillies, who stupidly gave up on the Wild Card in July; Jerry Manuel has been on the hot seat there longer than George W. Bush with the hippies. He’s got a lot of rookies who are throwing too many innings.
The Rockies are interesting choice—pretty far out today, but by the end of September could find themselves back in it after series with the Cubs and Pirates. Clint Hurdle has been masterful this year, and Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis have been outstanding most of this season.
In the AL, it’s a three man race with the Tigers, Sox and Twins fighting for two spots. Expect the Tigers to hang on to their 4 game title lead, despite their reliance on young pitching. Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander keep putting together enough pitching to seemingly get Jim Leyland by for another month or two. The Sox and Twins will go down to the wire, but if Fransico Liriano comes back in Fransico Liriano form, there will be no stopping those Minnesotans. When the Twins got themselves back in the race back in June, the Santana-Liriano combo was as (if not more) powerful as the Prior-Wood, Schilling-Johnson, Clemens-Pettite tandems that was so successful deep into the playoffs over the last few years.
I expect to see a California team play a Midwest team in November.
September is sports fans dream. A lot on the plate, choose wisely. Have a good week.
